Emerging market currencies have recently rolled over in early-June and are depreciating sharply vis-à-vis the US dollar. Odds are that this downtrend will continue. On the domestic front, it is true that many Emerging Market…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The global economy will continue to grow at an above-trend rate over the next 12 months and central banks will remove accommodation only slowly.But the second year of a bull market is often…
The performance of USD/CNY can often be explained by relative rates. The widening of the China-US yield differential in the second half of last year coincided with a sharp appreciation in the CNY vis-à-vis the USD. However, this…
HighlightsThe power shortage in China due to depleted coal inventories and low hydro availability will push copper and aluminum inventories lower, as refineries there – which account for roughly one-half of global capacity – are shut to…
Highlights The current burst of inflation in developed economies is due to a (negative) supply shock rather than a (positive) demand shock. Consumer complaints of “poor buying conditions” mean that higher prices will cause…
US and Euro Area measures of consumer confidence are diverging. According to the Conference Board survey, US consumer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month to a seven-month low of 109.3 in September. The nearly six-…
Although the US dollar has appreciated this year, our foreign exchange strategists highlight that from a big picture perspective, dynamics remain tilted against the dollar. True, the DXY is off its May low of 89.6. However, it…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service expects the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases to be a non-event for the US dollar. While the Fed is still considering tapering asset purchases (and would very likely do so…
As expected, the Norges Bank delivered its first rate hike on Thursday, bringing its benchmark policy rate to 0.25%. It is the first developed market central bank to raise rates in the post-COVID-19 crisis period. The central…