Currencies
Even after policymakers retract their prejudicial actions, financial markets might continue selling off. We compare the current tariff shock with two past episodes when policy reversals did not produce market turnarounds: (1) the RMB devaluation in August 2015, and (2) the US Congress's initial rejection of the TARP bank bailout program in 2008. In addition, we show numerous technical indicators illustrating at which levels the potential bottom in various equity markets could be.
Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.
This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely to see a rebound, which is actually bad news for the Hong Kong region of China, since it will tighten financial conditions. We have no new short-term trades, but if the peg broke, you want to be short HKD/JPY.
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will encounter economic destabilization. The likelihood of a hybrid military pressure on Taiwan will rise.
We believe Beijing views these US trade actions as nothing short of a declaration of economic war, not just a trade dispute. The US-China confrontation is set to escalate from here. Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to depreciate materially. Go short CNH against the US dollar. For EM and Asian equity portfolios, we are downgrading Chinese investable/offshore stocks from neutral to underweight.
