Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
US dollar weakness since Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech on Friday highlights two factors. First, Powell's speech did not produce a surprise. This is corroborated by the decline in Treasury yields and…
US financial markets' muted reaction to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech indicates that asset prices already reflect investors' expectation that the Fed will taper asset purchases before year-end (see Country…
Highlights We are reviewing our recommendations. We are also introducing recommendation tables to monitor these positions. Overall, our main recommendations have generated alpha and have a positive batting average. Feature The end…
BCA Research's 65-day fractal dimension is signalling a near term counter-trend reversal in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar. When an asset's fractal dimension breaches its natural lower bound, the fractal…
This week I have been holding client calls and roundtables with clients located in the EMEA region. In next week’s report we will share our answers to the most common client questions. In the meantime, this week we are sending you a…
Emerging market currencies are highly cyclical and benefit from strong business cycle dynamics. Meanwhile, the relatively closed US economy and the greenback's safe-haven characteristics make the US dollar a defensive…
The euro peaked at 1.23 in January this year and is making fresh lows. With speculators net long EUR/USD going into 2021, many have been caught offside in the recent downdraft. The key question therefore is whether the euro…