Highlights The DXY index appears to be following the seasonal pattern of strengthening in the summer and weakening towards year-end. In this context, the most attractive vehicles to play a decline in the dollar are the Scandinavian…
Highlights China’s July Politburo meeting signaled that policy is unlikely to be overtightened. The Biden administration is likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure deal – as well as a large spending bill by Christmas.…
The US trade deficit jumped 6.7% to a record USD75.7 billion in June, a good USD 1.5 billion above expectations. The wider deficit reflects a 2.1% increase in US imports, which outpaced the 0.6% rise in exports. Strong imports…
Highlights The rapid spread of the COVID-19 delta variant in Asia will re-focus precious metals markets anew on the possibility of another round of lockdowns and the implications for demand, particularly in Greater China and India,…
BCA Research’s Global Investment strategists recently highlighted that there are several compelling factors behind a weaker dollar narrative. For one, the US dollar usually weakens when growth momentum rotates from the US to…
Since the 1970s, the median performance of a currency hosting the Olympics is 4% over a year. This year’s games have obviously been unique given the pandemic. However, the performance of the yen today already falls well…
Highlights Globalization is recovering to its pre-pandemic trajectory. But it will fail to live up to potential, as the “hyper-globalization” trends of the 1990s are long gone. China was the biggest winner of hyper-…
The Australian dollar has been under pressure recently, falling below its 40-week moving average on June 18. AUD/USD is down 7.5% since its late-February apex and over the past three months it has been among the worst performing…
Highlights The decline in US Treasury yields has once again reduced the appeal of US paper, relative to foreign developed and emerging market bonds. Historically, lower US bond yields relative to other markets has been dollar bearish…