Highlights Gold is – and always will be – exquisitely sensitive to Fed policy and forward guidance, as last month's "Dot Shock" showed (Chart of the Week). Its price will continue to twitch – sometimes…
Highlights The US dollar will reach its ultimate high in the next deflationary shock. The swing factor for dollar demand is portfolio flows. In the next shock, portfolio flows will surge into US investments, driving up the US dollar to…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Dear Client, China Investment Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on July 14th. Best regards and we wish you a happy and healthy summer. Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights A USD…
The price of oil remains the biggest driver of USD/CAD, even if the relationship between the two assets is not as close as it once was. Crude and the USD still display a strong negative correlation. Oil is a very pro-cyclical…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the rally in the US dollar will be short-lived. The FX market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift was violent. From a low of 90.5…
Highlights The US is withdrawing from the Middle East and South Asia and making a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific. The third quarter will see risks flare around Iran and the US rejoin the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The result is…
Highlights Entering 2H21, oil and metals' price volatility will rise as inventories are drawn down to cover physical supply deficits brought about by the re-opening of major economies ex-China. As demand increases and oil and…
Highlights The sharp drop in Chinese lending over the past year is highly likely to weigh on (non-oil) commodity demand and prices through the remainder of 2021. Commodity demand shocks dominate commodity supply shocks. Commodity…