Special Report

Highlights We update our assumptions for the likely 10-15 year return for a wide range of different asset classes. Our methodology is basically unchanged from our last Return Assumptions report published in 2019, though we have…

Highlights The number one risk to our upbeat view on European economic activity and assets is a Chinese economic slowdown. The second most important risk to our view is a potential deterioration in the global credit impulse, even…

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we also sent you a Special Report on cryptocurrencies, authored by my colleagues Guy Russell and Matt Gertken. The conclusion is that government authorities are likely to lean against the…

Highlights The drubbing that cryptocurrencies have received over the past two weeks is just a taste of things to come. Crypto markets will continue to face tighter regulation, as this week’s announcements from China and the US…

Highlights ECB Tapering?: Investor fears that the ECB could follow the Bank of Canada and Bank of England and begin to taper its bond buying sooner than expected – perhaps as soon as next month’s policy meeting – are…

Special Report

Highlights The ECB is not repressing interest rates and penalizing savers. The Eurozone shows none of the symptoms associated with financial repression. Global excess savings are keeping US rates depressed. If US rates are low, then…

Highlights Global currencies are at a critical level versus the dollar. From a positioning standpoint today, a break below 89-90 on the DXY index will be extremely bearish, while a bounce from current levels should be capped in the 3-…

Highlights The US is only one deflationary shock away from a European level of bond yields. On a multi-year horizon, a deflationary shock is a near-certainty. The shock will be deflationary, because even if it starts inflationary, it…