Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means…
The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model.
The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model.
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
The February Ifo Business Climate index for Germany slightly missed estimates, staying unchanged from 85.2 in January. While respondents’ assessment of the current situation weakened, expectations rebounded to 85.4 from 84.3. …
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, Chief Strategist for our Foreign Exchange and Global Fixed Income Strategy services. A big macro trade over the last few years has been to shun US Treasuries, in favor of…
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…
A nascent theme in the latest data is the broad improvement in European sentiment. The February Sentix and ZEW surveys both improved, and flash estimates for European consumer confidence beat estimates, ticking up to -13.6%.…