Highlights Global Duration: Markets are correctly interpreting the $1.9 trillion US fiscal stimulus package as a factor justifying higher global growth expectations and bond yields. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on overall global…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the dollar’s countertrend rally has further to run. Nevertheless, the greenback will still decline over a 12-month horizon. The dollar is normally a…
Highlights The Biden administration’s early actions suggest it will be hawkish on China as expected – and the giant Microsoft hack merely confirms the difficulty of reducing strategic tensions. US-China talks are set to…
Please note that we will be presenting a webcast on Thursday March 11 at 10:00 AM EST for the Americas and EMEA regions and on March 12 at 9:00 HKT/12:00 AEDT for APAC clients. We will be discussing macro themes and investment strategies…
Highlights The US has largely passed a “stress test” of its political system. Rule of law is intact. The US dollar and treasuries may fall further due to cyclical and macro developments but not due to a structural loss of…
Highlights China’s economic recovery is in a later stage than the US. A rebound in US Treasury yields is unlikely to trigger upward pressure on government bond yields in China. Imported inflation through mounting commodity and…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service concludes that the yen’s decline amid the dollar rally is washing out stale longs. This process will allow for the USD/JPY to depreciate further. The yen has been…
The DXY index bottomed a nudge below the 90 level and is gaining momentum in March. Three reasons have catalyzed the rally in the greenback. First, the dollar was very much oversold, with net speculative positioning heavily short…
Dear client, In addition to this week’s abbreviated report, we are also sending you a Special Report on currency hedging, authored by my colleague Xiaoli Tang. Xiaoli’s previous work mapped out a dynamic hedging strategy for…