Cyclical currencies, captured by a basket of the CAD, AUD, NZD, BRL, MXN, and RUB have fared well since the beginning of the year, outperforming their defensive peers. A ratio of these “risk-on” currencies versus the…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service concludes that a big driver for the RMB in the coming years will also be widespread diversification away from USD assets. With extremely low volatility, the yuan has…
South Africa’s revised budget forecasts reveal that authorities are more optimistic than they were last October. The government deficit was revised down, and public debt is now expected to peak at 88.9% of GDP in 2025/26,…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…
Highlights Higher yields in China should continue to encourage inflows into the RMB. However, the gap between Chinese and US/global interest rates will narrow. This will temper the pace of RMB appreciation. The RMB remains modestly…