This is our last report of this year. We will resume publications in January. The EM strategy team wishes you a happy holiday season and a prosperous new year. Chart Of The weekFiscal Thrust Is A Major Negative In 2021 Emerging…
Feature Feature ChartEconomies Have Already Snapped Back In this final report of a tumultuous 2020, we present our key views for 2021 in the form of ten questions and answers during a recent conversation with a client. 1. …
Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Thursday, December…
Highlights Brexit no-deal vs. deal = 1.28 vs. 1.37 on GBP/USD. Any break-out into the high 1.30s is a tactical sell – because the bigger driver of GBP/USD is the global stock market, which is due a breather. The medium-term…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service concludes that the DXY should hit 80 in 2021, which implies a euro towards 1.35. Over the last few years, the relative growth performance between the Eurozone and the US…
Important technical indicators are increasingly arguing that the dollar is ripe for a rebound, despite the DXY’s recent breakdown. Sentiment toward the dollar has become depressed and positioning in the euro is extended.…
Highlights Every year we review our best and worst calls – both in terms of geopolitics and markets. This year our geopolitical forecasting and strategic market recommendations performed well, given the COVID-19 shock, but our…
The RMB’s rise this year has been impressive. It is up 9% versus the US dollar in just over six months. While it is true that the USD/CNY’s performance greatly reflects the dollar’s weakness, the RMB’s…