Highlights The global recovery has legs, but it will follow a stop-and-go pattern. Global fiscal policy will ultimately remain loose enough to create an appropriate counterweight to three major risks. Risk assets are still attractive…
Highlights Monetary Policy: The Fed will keep rates at the zero bound at least until inflation is above 2% and it will maintain an accommodative policy stance until long-dated TIPS breakeven inflation rates move above 2.3%. Remain…
The risk of a dollar rebound is only getting larger. As we previously highlighted, our Dollar Capitulation Index is now consistent with an elevated chance of a counter-trend move in the Greenback. However, such a move requires a…
BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service sees further cyclical upside in the AUD. Rises in the AUD continue until it becomes expensive. On this basis, the Australian dollar remains accommodative. Our purchasing…
Highlights While the bull market in the Australian dollar might pause temporarily, it will advance further this cycle. The key catalyst for the AUD is an improving balance-of-payments backdrop. Despite its explosive rise, the…
Highlights The great political surprises of 2016 are approaching key deadlines on November 3 and December 31. Investors should not let Brexit take their eye off the US election. Globalization will retreat faster under Trump regardless…
The US dollar’s weakness has been one of the most important consequences of the economic recovery taking shape around the world and it reflects the USD’s pronounced counter-cyclicality. In this context, the lack of…
The UK is once again playing hardball with the EU. The proposed Internal Market Bill would violate the terms of the post-Brexit deal already agreed with the EU. If implemented, the UK seriously risks being treated as a trading…
BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service estimates that Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK) are the best way to express its bearish dollar view over the coming 12 months. Both Norway and Sweden are well poised to…
Highlights We remain bearish on the US dollar over the next 12 months. The best vehicle to express this view continues to be the Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK). Precious metals remain a buy so long as the dollar faces downside…