As expected, the Bank of Canada stood pat on the rate front yesterday. The BoC also reiterated its stance to keep borrowing costs at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed and the 2% inflation target is…
According to BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the yen remains an attractive portfolio hedge. This view rests on three pillars. First, Japan has one of the highest real rates in the G10, meaning outflows from…
Australia's August NAB business survey sent a mixed message. While confidence improved from -14 to -8, current conditions stumbled from 0 to -6. This bifurcation highlights that Australian firms continue to feel the impact of…
Highlights The dollar has entered a structural bear market but is at risk of a countertrend bounce. The catalyst for such a bounce will be the underperformance of G10 economies, specifically the euro area relative to the US.…
Highlights Abenomics was working – prior to trade war and COVID-19 – and it will remain Japan’s economic policy setting, albeit in a new guise. This is true even if a dark horse candidate wins the Liberal Democratic…
Highlights EM domestic fundamentals, global trade and commodities prices, as well as global financial market themes are the main drivers of EM financial assets and currencies. The positive effect of improving global growth and rising…
Recommended Allocation Chart 1Only Internet Stocks Have Kept On Rising It has been a very strange bull market. Although global equities are up 52% since their bottom on March 23rd, the rally has been limited largely to…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China…
Highlights The leading providers of fundamental oil data differ sharply in their estimates of demand destruction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This will keep uncertainty over the trajectory of prices elevated this year. Our…
Highlights A weak dollar and low bond yields have pushed up the S&P 500 more than anticipated. Cyclical forces favor loftier stock prices in 12 months. Froth creates short-term vulnerabilities that higher yields could catalyze.…