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Currencies

The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model.

 
The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model.

 
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the “debt brake”, which…

Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.

The February Ifo Business Climate index for Germany slightly missed estimates, staying unchanged from 85.2 in January. While respondents’ assessment of the current situation weakened, expectations rebounded to 85.4 from 84.3.  The improvement in…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, Chief Strategist for our Foreign Exchange and Global Fixed Income Strategy services.   A big macro trade over the last few years has been to shun US Treasuries, in favor of gold. The key driver has…

Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German equities continue to defy expectations, but is a near-term pullback on the horizon?

A nascent theme in the latest data is the broad improvement in European sentiment. The February Sentix and ZEW surveys both improved, and flash estimates for European consumer confidence beat estimates, ticking up to -13.6%. Confidence remains low, but…
The January UK CPI was slightly hotter than expected. Headline inflation beat estimates, rising to 3.0% y/y from 2.5% in December. Core inflation also jumped but was in line with expectations at 3.7%. Services were strong, albeit slightly lower than expected…

Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and still elevated services inflation. This will keep Australian government bond yields elevated versus global yields, benefitting the Australian dollar.