Asking if EAFE can outperform US equities is akin to inquiring whether non-US EPS can grow faster than US earnings. One of the two key conditions has fallen into place for a resurgence of foreign profits vis-a-vis the US. EAFE…
Among many investors, low bond yields arouse worries that equities will make new lows in the coming months. The idea is that low bond yields, especially their extremely depressed real components, point to weaker growth ahead.…
BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy and Equity Trading Strategy services conclude that the underperformance of value versus growth has been an important contributor to the dollar’s strength. Two trends become…
Feature Over the last several years when I travelled to Europe, I would meet with Ms. Mea, an outspoken client of the Emerging Markets Strategy service. We have published our conversations with Ms. Mea in the past and this semi-annual…
BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service's intermediate-term model shows that the Swedish krona is now quite cheap. As such, it is one of their favorite longs. Meanwhile, since the Fed extended its USD swap lines…
Since March 2018, the Chinese yuan has been driven by geopolitical forces, specifically, the evolution of tariffs imposed by the US on China’s exports. In recent weeks, financial variables seem once again to drive the…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service's fundamental intermediate-term model indicates the USD is a sell, with a fair value that is falling much faster than the DXY index itself. The Fed’s…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The coronavirus pandemic is not over. Enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus will soften the blow to the global economy, but there remain significant risks to growth over the next 12 months…