Dear client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. Next week, please join me for a…
BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service explores the main risks to its dollar-bearish view. The breakdown in the dollar since March is still facing some skepticism, even internally at BCA. As a reserve currency,…
Highlights Should the DXY fail to breach below 92 in the coming months, momentum will be a risk to our short dollar positions. Another risk is valuation. The trade-weighted dollar is expensive, but not overly so. It is not especially…
In this Monday’s Special Report, we examined which S&P 500 GICS1 sectors have historically benefited from a falling greenback. Currently, piling evidence suggests that the path of least resistance will be lower…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report titled Do Not Overlook China’s Innovation Drive. Please click on it to access it. Today, we publish analysis on Brazil and Ukraine. Chart I-1Brazilian Share Prices…
Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…
NZD/CAD is likely to appreciate over the coming six to nine months. For the past two and a half years, the NZD/CAD cross has closely followed the 1-year/1-year forward swap rate differential between Canada and New Zealand. We…
A measure of inflows into China, FX Net Settlements for CNY Clients, has risen to CNY142.9 billion in May, the highest level since March 2014. This increase indicates that Chinese domestic investors are repatriating funds at home…
Highlights When retail investors invest aggressively and central banks buy assets en masse, economic fundamentals take the back seat and momentum becomes king. Global risk assets are at a fork in the road: either they will relapse…