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Highlights When retail investors invest aggressively and central banks buy assets en masse, economic fundamentals take the back seat and momentum becomes king. Global risk assets are at a fork in the road: either they will relapse…
  BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service and Foreign Exchange Strategy service recommend investors use any depreciation in the CNY caused by tensions between the US and China to accumulate renminbis, as any tariff-…
Special Report Highlights Our recalibrated model suggests that, if President Trump places a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods exports to the US, then the RMB should fall by 4% against the dollar from its current value. The RMB has been trending below…
  A churning market implies a lot of up and down moves by stocks but little defined trend. This is a great environment for traders, but a difficult one to navigate for investors. Instead of focusing on the overall stock…
  BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service believes that the JPY offers a “heads I win, tails I do not lose too much” opportunity. Real interest rates are already higher in Japan than in the US. As such,…
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the…
  BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service believes that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will allow the currency to depreciate and will cut interest rates materially. A Devaluation would offer an attractive opportunity…
Special Report Highlights The economic and health crises since Q1 2020 have accelerated the breakdown in the US-China relationship. Although the US is in a much weaker economic position this year than in 2019, President Trump may have fewer…
Special Report Highlights Egypt’s balance of payments have deteriorated materially due to both the crash in oil prices and the global pandemic. The country’s foreign funding requirements in 2020 are high and the currency is under…