British retail sales excluding auto fuel collapsed 18.4% in April compared to last year, resulting in the worst contraction on record. This poor number comes on the heels of dismal consumer confidence, inflation, and employment…
Latin American currencies are in a structural bear market relative to Asian ones. The poor productivity performance of Latin America relative to Asia drives this structural trend. Despite this general tendency for Latin…
Dear client, In lieu of our regular weekly report next week, we will hold a webcast on Thursday at 10:00 am ET discussing both tactical and strategic currency considerations. The format will be a short presentation, followed by a Q&…
Yesterday, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI flash estimate for May rose from 33.4 to 39.5, beating expectations of 38. The European indicator rebounded more than the US one, which increased from 36.1 to 39.8, narrowly missing…
Some corners of the market are starting to send strong signals that sentiment towards global growth is improving. EM currencies, especially outside of northern Asia, have begun to rebound and may be breaking out. The moves…
Highlights When it comes to a beauty contest among currencies, the US dollar is a winner right now. Significant dollar moves tend to occur in very long cycles. When – and only when – the crisis ends will the dollar begin…
Our Nowcast for global industrial activity is falling at its quickest pace since the GFC. Paradoxically, this is good news. The worse news is that the performance of EM carry trades financed in yen continues to deteriorate,…
The Australian unemployment rate stands at 5.2% and is expected to have risen to 8.2% in April. Nonetheless, Australia’s labor market slack is slated to rise less than in the US because Australia has been able to control…
Highlights Ever since the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections, the dollar has been trading in a bifurcated manner. Historically, this has been a rare event. The main bifurcation has been between developed market and commodity…