Highlights Uncertainty over the duration of lockdowns globally will continue to hamper the estimation of the global demand recovery for commodities. This uncertainty will continue to fuel safe-haven demand for USD for the balance of…
Highlights Yesterday we published a Special Report titled EM: Foreign Currency Debt Strains. We are upgrading our stance on EM local currency bonds from negative to neutral. Before upgrading to a bullish stance, we would first need…
Dear Client, Please join me and my fellow BCA Strategists Caroline Miller and Arthur Budaghyan for a live webcast tomorrow, Friday, April 24 at 8:00 AM EDT (1:00 PM BST, 2:00 PM CEST, 8:00 PM HKT) where we will discuss the outlook…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service conducted an EM foreign debt vulnerability assessment based on foreign debt obligations (FDOs) and foreign funding requirements (FFRs). The FDO compares annualized US dollar export…
Despite the weakness in spot oil prices this week, the Canadian dollar has not made new lows. Is this divergence a sign that the CAD could experience a period of strength versus the USD? Energy market-based indicators suggest…
Highlights With interest rates near zero around the world, balance sheet policy will become an important driver for currencies. Should the global economy need another dose of monetary stimulus, yield curve control (YCC) and direct…
Our model based on the relative money supply growth of the major economies shows that monetary forces point to a lower dollar over the course of the coming 18 months. Additionally, the widening of the twin deficit consequent to…
EM FX valuations are now offering attractive valuation for all investors, not just long-term ones. The effective exchange rate for EM as a whole now trades two sigmas below its long-term historical mean. In previous cycles, no…