Highlights Remain short the DXY index. The key risk to this view is a US-led rebound in global growth, or a pickup in US inflation that tilts the Federal Reserve to a relatively more hawkish bias. Stay long a petrocurrency basket. The…
Highlights An analysis on Indonesia is available below. We intend to maintain our long EM stocks position, initiated on December 19, as long as the MSCI EM equity index does not break below our stop point of 6% below current levels.…
Highlights Incoming economic data suggests that China’s economy is in the process of bottoming, but also that the intensity of a recovery is likely to be more muted than it has been during past economic cycles. Recent Chinese…
Feature Recommended Allocation Since BCA published its 2020 Outlook,1 and the December GAA Monthly Portfolio Update,2 nothing has happened to make us fundamentally change our views. We see the global manufacturing cycle…
Dear Client, In addition to this short weekly report, you will also receive a Special Report on investment themes over the next decade, penned by our colleagues in the US Equity Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services. The…
Feature The purpose of this Special Report is to identify and provoke a healthy debate on the prevailing investment themes for the 2020s and to speculate on what the key US sector beneficiaries and likely losers may be. Every decade a…
Highlights OPEC 2.0 production discipline and the capital markets’ parsimony in re funding US shale-oil producers will restrain oil supply growth. Monetary and fiscal stimulus will revive EM demand. These fundamentals will push…
For now, the epicenter of the growth recovery is outside the US, which has typically been synonymous with a lower dollar. The currencies of small open economies, such as the SEK and the NZD, have started to stage meaningful…