Our near-term target for EUR/USD is 1.18. This level will retest the downward sloping trendline in place since the Great Financial Crisis. The collapse in the euro since the financial crisis has been driven by falling growth…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Wednesday, December 18th at 10:00 AM EST, where I will discuss the major investment themes and views I see playing out for 2020. This will be…
Highlights An analysis on Thailand is available below. In all scenarios of global market performance, EM will underperform DM in the first half of 2020. Absolute return investors should be mindful of downside risks in EM financial…
We remain oil bulls on the back of a pickup in global demand and OPEC production discipline. This should lead to the outperformance of energy stocks, supporting inflows into Norway. Interest rate differentials continue to…
The biggest risk to a bearish dollar view is if global growth rebounds, but the US economy leads this move, allowing the Fed to pursue a relatively tighter monetary stance. However, this is a low probability outcome. Inflation…
Highlights Our take on the key macro drivers of financial markets is quite similar to last year’s, … : Monetary policy is still accommodative; lenders are ready, willing and able; and the expansion remains intact. ...…
Highlights The key risk to a dollar bearish view is a US-led rebound in global growth. This would allow the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary conditions much faster than other central banks, supporting the dollar in the process.…
Highlights Structurally overweight US T-bonds versus core European bonds. Our preferred expression is long T-bonds versus Swiss bonds. US yields can fall a lot more than European yields, and European yields can rise a lot more than US…