Highlights The May official PMI shows that manufacturing in China will slow over the coming year unless the recent doubling of U.S. import tariffs can be reversed and the imposition of the remaining tariffs can be avoided. The…
Inflows into Japan could accelerate, given cheap equity valuations and improved corporate governance that has been raising the relative return on capital. The propensity of investors to hedge these purchases will dictate the yen…
Feature Markets have turned jittery in the past month. Global growth data have deteriorated further (Chart 1), with Korean exports, the German manufacturing PMI, and even U.S. industrial production weak. Moreover, trade negotiations…
With a net international investment position of almost 60% of GDP and net income receipts of almost 4% of GDP, volatility in markets tend to lead to powerful repatriation flows back to Japan. Real interest rates also tend to be…
Highlights Monetary policy remains accommodative in Japan, but will tighten on a relative basis if the Bank Of Japan (BoJ) stands pat. The BoJ’s margin of error is non-trivial, since a small external shock could well tip the…
Highlights In the political economy of oil, an awareness of the speed at which policy in systematically important states can change can restrain risk taking and investment. This can keep markets in an agitated state of anticipation,…
Please note that analysis on India is published below. Highlights This report reviews several financial market-based indicators and price signals from various corners of global markets that are pertinent to the global business cycle,…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance is slightly accommodative for the U.S., but it is too tight for the rest of the world. Inflation is likely to slow further before making a durable bottom toward year-end.…
Highlights A financial market riot point remains likely over the coming few months to force policymakers, including those in China, to address the economic weakness that a full-tariff scenario will entail. The near-term outlook is…
Typical reflation indicators such as commodity prices, emerging market currencies, and industrial share prices are breaking down after a nascent upturn earlier this year. One of our favorite indicators on whether or not easing…