Exports and industrial production from Southeast Asia continue to decelerate. Interbank rates in China are spiking higher, suggesting most of the monetary stimulus may have already been frontloaded. And on the earnings front, U.S…
Highlights Central bankers appear to be in a rush to boost inflation expectations before the next economic downturn. This in practice should be stimulative for the global economy. Historically, currencies of small, open economies are…
Highlights The U.S. dollar will ultimately reach fresh cycle highs, but not before going through a weak phase starting this summer that could last 12 months. We closed our long DXY trade for a carry-adjusted return of 16.4% last week…
Analysis on the Philippines and Argentina are below. Highlights Analysis on the Philippines starts on page 9 and Argentina on page 12. Relative return on capital for non-financial corporations points to continuous EM equity…
Highlights The recent dovish shift in tone from central banks around the world is here to stay this year, providing support for global growth. As a result, stock prices will benefit from a combination of easy policy and rebounding…
Highlights The Taiwanese equity market has closely tracked the global benchmark over the past few years, meaning Taiwan is particularly an “alpha” rather than a “beta” play. This means that a bullish 6-12 month…
It is true that the momentum of this leadership has been rolling over recently, but historically such growth divergences between the U.S. and the rest of the world have generated anywhere from 10%-15% rallies in the greenback…
One winner as volatility starts to rise is the yen. Our Foreign Exchange Strategy team expects the BoJ to remain on hold at next week’s policy meeting, but the incentive for the central bank to act preemptively this time…
Highlights Solid credit growth numbers from China last week suggest an emerging window for pro-cylical currency trades. However, since 2009, these currency pairs have tended to work in real time rather than with a lag. Continued muted…