Highlights Chinese credit origination surpassed expectations in March. Credit growth is now clearly trending higher, and the latest data suggest that economic activity is rebounding. This bodes well for global growth. The conventional…
Highlights In China, “helicopter” money and the socialist put are positive for growth in the medium term but will prove harmful for the economy over the long run. In the socialist put scenario, a buy-and-hold strategy is…
The news flow so far has been positive, with both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly acknowledging they are closer to a deal. But with a still-ballooning U.S. trade deficit with China, Trump…
Unsurprisingly, incoming data has been weak of late, which the ECB (like other central banks) blamed on the external environment. It did fall short of speculation that it will introduce a tiered system for its marginal deposit…
Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical…
Our Foreign Exchange Strategy team’s simple observation is that while the pound is sitting exactly where it was after the 2016 referendum results, the odds of a hard Brexit have significantly fallen since then. We are…
For starters, over the past five years or so, whenever this cross has broken below the 1.04 support level, going long proved to be a profitable strategy over the ensuing 6-to-12 months. Meanwhile, over the last 35 years, the…
Highlights Most currency pairs continue to trade toward the apex of tight wedge formations. History suggests major breakouts could be imminent. While the trade-weighted dollar has historically tended to be the best performing…
Highlights The meaningful improvement in the March manufacturing PMIs (both Caixin and official) all but confirms that a rebound in Chinese economic activity is forthcoming. The odds that investors will look through any near-term…