Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has deeply weakened in recent years. One of the reasons has been the prominence of new, important producers, notably the U.S. Oil prices should trend towards $75/bbl by year-…
Dear Client, I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Seattle, Anchorage, and Juneau last week. In this week’s report, I address some of the questions that routinely came up during our meetings. Among other things, the topics…
After all of the chaos from last week’s U.K. parliamentary sessions, an extension will likely be granted untill the May 23-26 European Union elections. For long-term sterling investors, what is clear is that developments…
An improvement in leading economic indicators in the spring will set the stage for a reacceleration in global growth and a decline in the dollar in the second half of this year. The combination of stronger growth and a weaker…
Highlights Global equities will remain rangebound for the next month or so, but should move decisively higher as economic green shoots emerge in the spring. A revival in global growth will cause the recent rally in the U.S. dollar to…
Highlights Every diversified currency portfolio should hold the yen as insurance against rising market volatility. However, for tactical investors, the latest dovish shift by global central banks almost guarantees the Bank of Japan…
From the moment almost three years ago that the U.K. voted to leave the EU, it was clear that a rational and measured Brexit would require the U.K. to remain in a customs union with the EU. Rational and measured because a…
As demonstrated in the above chart, historically the bulk of EM equity return erosion has been due to currency depreciation. Exchange rates of structurally weak EM economies depreciate chronically. Common reasons include lack…
Highlights Analysis on South Africa is published below. The “EM” label does not guarantee a secular bull market. None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM…