As 2024 closes out a busy electoral calendar for North America, our Geopolitical strategists look at Canada, where an election will be held by October 2025. Canada is poised for a likely change in leadership next year.…
This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted…
European assets and the euro have become oversold and are likely to rebound. Will this move be nothing more than a dead cat bounce leading to more weakness?
We used last Friday’s BCA Live & Unfiltered Meeting to assess our views on the US dollar after its recent bull run. While technical indicators may show short-term exhaustion, and Scott Bessent’s nomination for…
Executive Summary Political Uncertainty And The Dollar The consensus is that Republicans will blow out the budget deficit, leading to a higher fiscal risk premium on the dollar. That seems unlikely for now. If the deficit…
After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated,…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now fast approaching recent highs. Multiple factors drove this rally, among them are the stronger-than-expected…