For the second time in 25 years, Canadian policy rates fell in line with New Zealand’s. This last happened from 1998 to 1999, when NZD/CAD subsequently depreciated 26%. However, today Canada’s and New Zealand’s…
In China, new total social financing hit CNY 4.6 trillion in January, well above the normal seasonal strength. Accordingly, the Chinese fiscal and credit impulse is starting to improve. While this rebound is currently embryonic,…
Highlights A sooner-than-anticipated end to the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet runoff should give a welcome boost to international liquidity conditions. Moreover, reflationary efforts in China, cautious global central banks,…
We build a ranking methodology using domestic economic variables only, intentionally excluding global business cycle factors. Essentially, we want to create an additional filter to be used independently of our main method. This…
We often rely on our Intermediate-Term Timing Model (ITTM) to gauge if a currency is cheap or not. The above chart compares the Aggregate Domestic Attractiveness Ranking of G-10 currencies to their deviation from their ITTM.…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
Highlights The current trajectory in global share prices resembles what took place in 2000 and early 2001. The early 2001 rebound in global and EM stocks lasted several weeks only, despite ongoing easing by the Federal Reserve.…
Highlights Since 2008, no developed economy central bank has been able to hike interest rates sequentially by more than 2 percent before needing to take a breather… and then reverse course. The current vulnerability to further…
Highlights Our main leading indicator for China’s economy and the broad trend in coincident measures both suggest that investment-relevant Chinese growth is set to slow over the coming months. Even in a trade deal scenario, an…