After years of commodity booms and strong domestic demand supported by rising household wealth, the Canadian and Australian manufacturing sectors have been greatly diminished. Much capacity has vanished, and it will be difficult…
Feature Half Way Back Since BCA went overweight global equities in late December, the MSCI ACWI index has rallied by 8% and the S&P 500 is back to only 8% off its September historical high. So far, this has been little more than a…
Highlights We advocate implementing asset allocation not across EM assets, but rather relative to their DM counterparts. EM stocks should be part of a global equity portfolio. EM sovereign and corporate credit should be part of a…
Due to slowing Chinese credit growth and the tightening in global liquidity conditions, global growth has suffered. However, the global and U.S. stock-to-bond ratios, two financial market metrics finely tuned to global economic…
Highlights Excess dollar liquidity is still deteriorating. The U.S. economy’s robustness suggests this trend will continue. Elevated EM-dollar debt and declining dollar liquidity point to lower global growth and a stronger…
Five reasons underpin our currency strategists’ cautious tactical view: First, the dollar - a momentum currency - is currently over-owned. Both net speculative positions in the dollar and sentiment toward the DXY are…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Highlights The U.S. economy is slowing in a completely predictable manner. With inflationary pressures largely dormant, the Fed can afford to stay on hold for the next few FOMC meetings. Growth in the U.S. and the rest of the world…