Highlights Please note that country sections on Mexico and Colombia published below. The policy stimulus in China could produce a growth revival in the second half of 2019, but there are no signs of an imminent bottom in China’s…
Highlights Buy the pound as soon as the U.K. parliament coalesces a majority around an action plan to counter a no-deal Brexit. For equity investors the best play is a FTSE Small Company Index ETF and/or U.K. REITS. Beaten-down banks…
The Manufacturing ISM may have been weak in December, but the U.S. continues to generate a healthy level of job growth, and wages continue to accelerate. Down the road, this will be inflationary. Despite the recent…
The dollar is historically a momentum currency, implying that as much as strength begets further strength, weakness begets additional weakness. As a result, the fall in the DXY from 97.5 in December to 96 raises a red flag.…
Highlights All of our recent investment recommendations have performed very strongly but have further to go: 1. Own a combination of European banks plus U.S. T-bonds. 2. Overweight EM versus DM. 3. …
Dear Client, This Wednesday January 9th 2019, we are publishing a joint report co-written with BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team. There will be no report on Friday. Best Regards, Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign…
Highlights Our leading indicator for China’s old economy continues to point to slower growth over the coming months, which is consistent with the bearish message from China’s housing market and forward-looking export…
As we have been arguing, the yen should be strong in the current environment, especially against the euro, the Australian dollar and high-yielding EM currencies. When global growth weakens and safe heaven yields fall, the yen…
The JPY may be cheap, but Japan’s core inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s objective, and shows little sign of hitting 2% within a reasonable period (see chart). The recent strength in the yen only re-…
Highlights The yen’s sharp rally this week reflected a liquidation of carry trades. EUR/JPY has hit our target of 120, it is time to close our longstanding bearish recommendation on this pair. The downside in AUD/JPY is limited…