Feature No Recession – Add To Risk Again Markets have been notably weak and volatile since we published our 2019 Outlook1 in late November. Over the past couple of months, global equities have fallen by more than 10%, the 10-year…
Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…
Highlights Asset allocation: Start 2019 with an overweight to industrial commodities versus equities. Await an oversold sell-off signal on the 65-day fractal dimension to go tactically overweight equities versus cash. Equities: Start…
Dear Client, This will be the last Global Investment Strategy report of 2018. Publication will resume on January 4th. On behalf of the entire Global Investment Strategy team, I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays,…
In recent weeks, a few market signals have offered some hope. The growth-sensitive CRB Raw Industrials index has been firming, and the Baltic Dry index has recouped 40% of its loss from August to November. EM FX has also…
However, at this juncture, the global policy backdrop still favors remaining long the dollar and using any correction to build up larger long-dollar bets. Our BCA Fed Monitor continues to point to the need for tightening U.S.…
Highlights The delay to the U.K. parliamentary vote on the current Brexit deal has edged up our assessed probability of no-deal to 20 percent. Our probability-weighted value of the GBP is still around 5 percent higher than today.…
Highlights Our take on the key macro drivers of financial markets hasn’t evolved much since we laid it out this summer, … : Monetary policy is still accommodative; lenders are ready, willing and able; and the expansion…