Highlights The dollar will continue to rally despite the trade truce agreed upon last weekend between U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping. Not only is this truce far from a permanent deal, but global growth…
Highlights Deep-seated economic and political forces will undermine the trade truce between China and the United States. U.S. economic momentum is strong enough to allow the Fed to deliver more rate hikes next year than what the…
First, policymakers in China realize that the stimulus measures implemented in 2009-‘10, 2012-‘13 and 2015-‘16 led to massive misallocations of capital and fostered both inefficiencies and speculative excesses…
Highlights Downside risks to EM assets remain substantial. Stay put. EM stocks, credit and currencies will underperform their DM counterparts in the first half of 2019. The key and necessary condition for a new secular EM bull market…
In 2014, the Fed was gearing up to raise rates while other central banks were still in full-out easing mode. The divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and the rest of the world caused the U.S. dollar to surge. The…
Dear Client, In addition to today’s report, we sent you our 2019 Outlook earlier this week, featuring a discussion between BCA editors and Mr. and Ms. X. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights Today…
The U.S. economy continues to support the case for Fed normalization, while China’s stimulus continues to disappoint. The result is a double whammy for commodity prices and EM assets as the dollar strengthens and exports of…
Highlights On a 6-month horizon, go long a combination of banks and high quality 10-year bonds. The recommended combination is 25 cents in the banks and 75 cents in the bonds. The preferred banks are European or euro area and the…