Slowing global growth and inflation as well as a strong trade-weighted dollar could very well put a bid under the price of Treasury bonds over the next few months, especially as speculators are still large sellers of the whole U.…
On the surface, a bearish tone on the dollar appears justified at the moment. Speculators hold near-record long bets on the dollar, yet U.S. economic data seems to finally be succumbing to the gravitational pull of slowing…
As the chart above shows, the dollar’s behavior is a function of where we stand in the global economic and inflation cycle. Our Foreign Exchange Strategy team looked at the performance of G10 currencies versus the dollar…
Despite a macro environment that should have been dollar bearish (i.e., slowing growth and rising inflation), investors lowered the bar for dollar appreciation in 2018 by being massively short the greenback. Further,…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Dear Client, Early next week, we will be sending you our BCA Outlook 2019 - our annual dialogue with the bearishly inclined Mr. X and his family. In this report, BCA editors will highlight the most impactful themes for the global…
Highlights The relative performance of developed market (DM) versus emerging market (EM) equities just corresponds to the relative performance of healthcare versus financials. On a six month horizon, DM will underperform EM. Within…
Highlights Global growth has not yet bottomed, this will provide additional support for the dollar. EUR/USD will be a buy once it dips below 1.1, as slowing global growth means that European activity will continue to lag behind the U.…