Highlights Macro outlook: Global growth will continue to decelerate into early next year on the back of brewing EM stresses and an underwhelming policy response from China. Equities: Stay neutral for now, while underweighting EM…
Highlights Macro outlook: Global growth will continue to decelerate into early next year on the back of brewing EM stresses and an underwhelming policy response from China. Equities: Stay neutral for now, while underweighting EM…
Our Global Investment Strategy team recommended this position past June as a means to benefit from potential China downside, and U.S. upside. A weaker yuan and Chinese economy will raise raw material costs to Chinese firms.…
China’s economy is slowing, which has prompted the government to inject liquidity into the financial system. The spread in one-year swap rates between the U.S. and China has fallen from about 3% earlier this year to 0.6% at…
Our Foreign Exchange Strategy group believes the SEK is clearly cheap. The trade-weighted krona is trading at its cheapest levels relative to BCA’s long-term fair value since the Great Financial Crisis (see chart). The SEK…
Currency markets can be used as signals for future growth expectations. The above chart shows that the relative performance of risk-on and risk-off currencies foreshadow further downside for global trade. More importantly,…
Highlights We review last year's "Three Tantalizing Trades" and offer four additional ones: Trade #1: Long June 2019 Fed funds futures contract/short Dec 2020 Fed funds futures contract Trade #2: Long USD/CNY Trade #3…