Highlights The U.S. dollar is likely to correct further over the coming weeks. The CAD should benefit as it is cheap and oversold, and the inflationary back-drop warrants tighter monetary conditions. This will be a bear market rally,…
Earlier this week, the Trump administration announced its decision on the second round of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports; it decided that the tariff rate on the imports will initially start at 10%, but would rise to…
At a World Economic Forum event held yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang (the second most powerful Chinese official after President Xi) argued that China would not manipulate its currency, and highlighted that China would stick to…
Highlights The latest round of tariffs on U.S. imports from China confirms that the Trump administration's confrontation with China goes beyond the mid-term elections. Desynchronization between the U.S. and China/EM growth…
Highlights The Trump administration's decision to effectively tariff the second round of imports at 25% materially raises the odds of another significant uptick in Chinese financial market volatility. Even if China ramps up its…
The euro has recently benefited from easing Italian political risk. The populist Five Star Movement / Lega Nord coalition is backing away from a budget confrontation with Brussels, as Italy's minister of finance wants a 2%…
Investors are skeptical about the Australian economy's underlying strength. The NAB Business Confidence survey for the Next Period has weakened sharply, while mortgage approvals and house prices have also sagged. This…
Highlights The USD remains supported by fundamentals, especially now that its late-2016 excesses have been purged. Solid U.S. growth contrasts with weaker growth in the rest of the world, which will incentivize further inflows into…
Highlights The U.S. midterm elections are far less investment-relevant than consensus holds; Trump will increase the pressure on China and Iran regardless of the likely negative election results for the GOP; The Iranian sanctions,…