Highlights Will A Rising U.S. Dollar Alter The Fed's Tightening Plans? U.S. economic growth appears to be accelerating, the labor market continues to tighten, core inflation is approaching the Fed's target and wage growth is…

Highlights The recent weakness in emerging markets (EM) has not yet altered the Fed's view of the U.S. economy. Capital spending in the U.S. remains upbeat despite a slowdown in economic momentum outside the country. May's…

Recommended Allocation  A Series Of Unfortunate Events Markets have taken a series of hits in recent months - sharp drops in emerging market currencies, a political crisis in Italy, and the ongoing trade war between the U.S.…

Highlights Italy is a live drama. However, both Italy and Brussels have constraints that should lead to a compromise on fiscal stimulus. Italy will not leave the euro in the foreseeable future, and the European Central Bank has little…

Dear Client, I will be visiting clients next week. Instead of our Weekly Report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleagues Matt Gertken and Ray Park. The report addresses the North Korean situation and argues that…

Highlights The 10-year Italian BTP yield at 4% yield marks a 'line in the sand' at which the current drama could escalate into something considerably worse. The global 6-month credit impulse is now indisputably in a mini-…

Dear Clients, Please note that next week's report will be a joint effort with our geopolitical team, focused on North Korea. The report will be sent to you two days later than usual, on Friday June 8. Best regards, Jonathan…

Highlights The prospects for U.S. economic and earnings growth remain solid but overseas growth is rolling over. The U.S. economic surprise index is poised to turn negative but inflation surprise is headed the in the opposite…

Highlights Last year's broad-based global growth recovery has given way to slower growth and increasing differentiation in growth rates across economies. The U.S. has gone from laggard to leader in the global growth horse race,…

Highlights The dollar rally is set to continue. The dollar tends to perform best when real rates are rising and above r-star. We are entering this environment and raising our DXY target to 98. Moreover, the rest of the world is likely…