MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.
Our Emerging Markets and Foreign Exchange strategists recommend staying neutral-to-underweight on the Indian rupee versus EM Asia peers, as macro and policy pressures mount. US tariffs and possible sanctions on Russian oil imports…
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England…
Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets…
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.…
European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB…
Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers.
Sweden’s July inflation print came in cooler than expected, but core remains too high for an imminent Riksbank cut. CPI rose 0.8% y/y, while CPIF climbed to 3.0% and core CPIF decelerated to 3.1%, still above the Riksbank’s 2.8…
US TMT stocks have been delivering miraculous profit performance. Yet, outside US large tech, global equity fundamentals and technicals are troublesome. A near-term USD rebound should be faded.