The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in…
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US…
In this Insight, we evaluate if there is more juice in our macro bet of being long June 2025 CORRA versus SOFR futures, and correspondingly, being short the CAD, for investors with a 1-3 month horizon.
After cutting three times already since June, the Bank of Canada fulfilled market expectations and cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. The BoC sees risks around inflation as roughly balanced over its projection horizon,…
The US dollar had a strong October thus far, breaching its 20-,50- and 200-day moving averages with a 4% increase and only three trading days in the red. The DXY now sits above where it was before the August selloff in risk…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team sees evidence of a “Trump trade” across markets, as the dollar strengthens, Treasury yields jump, and US small caps try to break out. However, the tactical and cyclical outcomes…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home…
Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early…