Special Report

Is the RMB cheap or expensive? Based on trade accounts, the yuan is inexpensive, but the RMB is vulnerable due to capital outflows. Yet, Beijing will not resort to a rapid devaluation for now, and the option of floating the currency…

In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.

The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…

We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and…

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Special Report

In this report, we try to gauge how long the exceptional performance of the US can last, but from a more nuanced angle – inflows into US assets and the impact on the dollar and bond yields. Our work suggests that investors should not…

Special Report

The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost…