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Currencies

Stairway To Asia: The Dollar’s Brief Lift Before The Fall

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
MacroQuant Model Update: Recessions Are Like Death

MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
The INR Won’t Decouple From Slowing Growth
Our Emerging Markets and Foreign Exchange strategists recommend staying neutral-to-underweight on the Indian rupee versus EM Asia peers, as macro and policy pressures mount. US tariffs and possible sanctions on Russian oil imports threaten India’s export…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Tight Financial Conditions, Weak Data Support Gilt Overweight
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tactically Oversold Dollar Will Remain Countercyclical Hedge…For Now
Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a  countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets. At the peak of stress,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The INR Won’t Decouple From Slowing Growth

The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy
ZEW Reversal Flags Near-Term EUR Weakness
European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to 34.7 from 52.7. The German…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
RBA Cuts Again, But Market Pricing Is Still Too Dovish
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Brazilian Real: Under Pressure From Mounting Risks

Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev
Sticky Core Inflation Keeps Riksbank on Hold for Now
Sweden’s July inflation print came in cooler than expected, but core remains too high for an imminent Riksbank cut. CPI rose 0.8% y/y, while CPIF climbed to 3.0% and core CPIF decelerated to 3.1%, still above the Riksbank’s 2.8% July forecast and outside…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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