Turkey’s financial policymakers have pursued a disciplined and restrictive policy mix so far, delivering high real interest rates and curbing fiscal expansion even as the economy slows. This commitment to inflation control has paved the…
Our DM ex. US strategists see the yen entering a multi-year rally and recommend shorting EUR/JPY now while preparing to short USD/JPY as Fed cuts approach. The yen remains deeply undervalued across PPP, unit labor cost, and real…
MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
BCA’s US Political strategists warn that Russia presents an immediate market risk, with near-term pullbacks offering potential buying opportunities. President Trump is pivoting toward ceasefires and trade deals, supported by approval…
EUR/USD has broken below key support, and near-term risks justify a tactical bearish stance while longer-term investors should buy dips. The pair fell through its 50-day moving average, which, along with the 20-day, had provided…
The US-EU trade deal lifts uncertainty but imposes high tariffs, weighing on the EUR and supporting our long USD positioning. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all EU exports to the US, including cars and potentially,…
Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy,…
We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX…
Rising US macro uncertainty and external imbalances are reinforcing euro strength and are supportive of a long-term bullish view on EUR/USD. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist for Developed Markets ex…