Currencies
Mexico has gone from investor darling to massive underperformer within the EM space in the past month. In the eyes of our Emerging Markets Strategy team, the near-term outlook for Mexican risk assets remains poor in absolute terms, but the long-term view is…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual components diverged. Food and non-alcoholic…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on Thursday. The SNB continued its dovish…
We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.
Japanese exports in JPY increased from 8.3% y/y to 13.5% in May, surpassing expectations of 12.7%. 23.9% and 17.8% y/y growth in exports to the US and China, respectively, led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are generally…
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first major central bank to embark on a dovish pivot back in March. It lowered borrowing costs Thursday for a second consecutive meeting, from 1.5% to 1.25%, despite expectations that it would hold the policy rate…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and fiscal easing necessary to fend off…