The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.
MacroQuant sees significant downside risks to stocks over a 1-to-3 month horizon and suggests increasing allocation to long-term bonds. The model favours defensive equity sectors but is also hedging its bets by overweighting…
Our Global Investment strategists highlighted back in November 2022 that structural deflationary forces in Japan were weakening, thus setting the stage for inflation to make a historic comeback in Japan. About a year later…
The greenback typically moves in the opposite direction of global growth. The US economy is indeed more highly geared towards services than manufacturing, compared with the rest of the world. Therefore, when global growth…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates on hold at this week’s monetary policy meeting, in line with expectations. However, there were three new notes from its monetary policy statement that will likely…
In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed…
The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…