According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, an ensemble of technical indicators reveals that the dollar is overbought in the near term. The list of indicators they have compiled for this analysis is…
In this report, we review what our technical indicators are telling us about the G10 currencies.
The Asian currency index posted the largest negative post-GFC abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. Indeed, Asian currencies have been on a general downtrend since early 2023, and more…
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Headline inflation in Sweden came in at 4.1% in March. Lower food prices as well as lower inflation for recreation and culture were the main contributors to the drop. The biggest positive contributor was housing due to higher…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a tactical buying opportunity for EUR/USD is approaching. However, this will not lead to a renewed bull market, only to a bounce toward 1.10-1.12. …
In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.
EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry…