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Currencies

The Outlook For CE3 Currencies
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that among the CE3 currencies, the zloty and the koruna will be the relative winners, while the forint will likely be the worst performer of the three. That said, all three CE3 currencies will weaken…
Daily Insights
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China’s Stagnating Economy

China’s economy is cruising at a very low altitude. The odds are that China’s equity rebound is running out of time. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar in the coming months, albeit the pace may be modest.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
Services PMIs in Europe Surprise to the Upside
Flash estimates for several European PMIs were released Tuesday. The results for manufacturing activity were somewhat disappointing. The German manufacturing PMI increased from 41.9 to 42.2, but underperformed expectations of 42.7. France’s manufacturing…
Daily Insights
The Effect of Interest Rates on Euro Area Small Caps
Euro Area small caps typically outperform large caps whenever the trade weighted euro appreciates and underperform whenever it depreciates. The rationale is simple. Most European large cap companies are large multinationals that export their products outside…
Daily Insights
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Banks: From Bread And Butter To Pastries

Q1 earnings results of the largest US banks have demonstrated that the engine of recent growth in profitability, NII, has faltered as funding costs are rising fast. However, the resurgence in non-NII thanks to a revival in corporate activity has been a saving grace. Earnings growth appears to have bottomed, while valuations are attractive. To play up portfolio exposure to an upcoming surge in capital markets activity, and minimize exposure to declining profitability in traditional banking services, overweight Diversified Banks and Capital Markets, and underweight Regional Banks.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Japanese CPI Inflation Eases More Than Expected
Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “core-core” CPI (ex-fresh food and energy)…
Daily Insights
The Dangers Of Debt
The IMF’s latest fiscal monitor report highlighted the dangers that rising sovereign debt alongside rising deficits pose to advanced economies. The United States, in particular, is at risk. The IMF projects that fiscal deficits in the US will stay above 3% of…
Daily Insights
The Bitcoin Halving Is Upon Us
The Bitcoin halving is a crucial landmark in the Bitcoin protocol. It refers to the process by which rewards for mining bitcoin are cut by half. It occurs roughly every four years, with previous halvings occurring in November 2012, July 2016 and May 2020. The…
Daily Insights
The Dollar Is Overbought
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, an ensemble of technical indicators reveals that the dollar is overbought in the near term. The list of indicators they have compiled for this analysis is simple but potent: How are…
Daily Insights
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What Are FX Technical Indicators Telling US?

In this report, we review what our technical indicators are telling us about the G10 currencies.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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