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Currencies

March In Review
The soft-landing narrative dominated the behavior of financial markets in March, with most major global risk assets posting above average returns. In particular, the burgeoning ‘risk on’ sentiment led to a rally across global equity markets. On this front,…
Daily Insights
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The Case For Short Sterling

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…
Daily Insights
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Second Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Balancing Act

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Improving UK Economic Data Surprises Reduce Odds Of Dovish BoE Surprise
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
Daily Insights
A Beacon Of Optimism In Sweden?
Swedish economic data is usually good at sniffing out the outlook for global growth. Looking at a broad swath of indicators, from domestic conditions to barometers of external demand, our colleagues from BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment…
Daily Insights
China: Yuan Slide Signals Greater Tolerance For Currency Weakness
Image The Chinese yuan slide sharply against the US dollar on Friday, breaching the 7.2 level. The weakness comes after the PBOC loosened its hold on the currency by setting a weaker-than-anticipated daily fixing. The…
Daily Insights
The SNB Leads The Way
The Swiss National Bank’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday came as a dovish surprise to market participants anticipating it would hold the policy rate unchanged. The rate cut, which brought the policy rate down to 1.5% makes the SNB the first among its G10…
Daily Insights
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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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What Is Sweden Telling Us About The Global Cycle?

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor

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