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Currencies

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The Market Implications Of A Dovish BoC

In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Gold And Bitcoin Joined At The Hip

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Bitcoin Speculative Shorts Are Not What They Seem
Short speculative positions on Bitcoin at the CME are near theie highest level on record. Some financial commentators have suggested that this bearish positioning in bitcoin could act as kindle and spark a short squeeze. But looking at raw speculative…
Daily Insights
USD: Watch Out For A Possible Breakout?
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service maintains a neutral view on the dollar for the next three months. The team continues to believe that the dollar is due for a long-term bear market, but momentum is in favor of the DXY in the near term. …
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: The Dollar Rally Will Likely Fade

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev
UK PMIs Lose Momentum While GBP Is Overbought
The final UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs for March were both revised down slightly from their flash estimates. While the report indicates that activity is still expanding, there has been a clear loss in momentum since February. The Composite…
Daily Insights
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What Will Spoil The Party?

Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
March In Review
The soft-landing narrative dominated the behavior of financial markets in March, with most major global risk assets posting above average returns. In particular, the burgeoning ‘risk on’ sentiment led to a rally across global equity markets. On this front,…
Daily Insights
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The Case For Short Sterling

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Riksbank Will Be Among The First To Cut Rates
The Swedish krona was among the weakest G10 currencies on Wednesday following the Riksbank meeting. Although the central bank kept the benchmark rate unchanged as expected, the post-meeting communication was on the dovish side. The press release noted that…
Daily Insights

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