Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (…
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk…
Our Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) colleagues recommended booking an 11.4% gain on their Egyptian T-bill trade initiated earlier in the year. Now that currency-devaluation risk has been removed from the picture for the…
Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered…
Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are…
Swiss annual inflation continued to decelerate in February, with headline CPI now at 1.2% and core at 1.1%. This is remarkable since inflation continues to track well below the 1.8% forecast by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for…
The global equity rally – which fizzled at the start of the year – picked up steam again in February with nearly all major regions posting above average returns. After having underperformed last year, Chinese stocks…
Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.
In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.
The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher…