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Currencies

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Where We Have Conviction

Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (3) a US profit margin squeeze is imminent; (4) EM domestic bonds and sovereign USD bonds are due for a setback.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Month-In-Review: Changes In The FX Attractiveness Ranking

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Mexico: The Future Remains Bright
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk assets remains brighter than ever.…
Daily Insights
Egypt Devalues Pound: Time To Get Long?
Our Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) colleagues recommended booking an 11.4% gain on their Egyptian T-bill trade initiated earlier in the year. Now that currency-devaluation risk has been removed from the picture for the foreseeable future, they are…
Daily Insights
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Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Case For Norway
Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are catching up to the improvement we…
Daily Insights
Switzerland: Deflation Is Now The Risk
Swiss annual inflation continued to decelerate in February, with headline CPI now at 1.2% and core at 1.1%. This is remarkable since inflation continues to track well below the 1.8% forecast by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the first quarter. Import and…
Daily Insights
February In Review
The global equity rally – which fizzled at the start of the year – picked up steam again in February with nearly all major regions posting above average returns. After having underperformed last year, Chinese stocks led their global counterparts in terms of…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Thesis Remains Intact

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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An Update On The Norwegian Krone

In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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