Japan’s CPI inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.2% y/y in January. However, the sharp slowdown comes on the back of falling energy prices. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s core-core measure of underlying inflation (CPI excluding…
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency,…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold purchases by central banks will continue apace, as they diversify away from USD foreign reserves. Amid elevated geopolitical risk, arising from…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
Japanese equities have outperformed their global peers since September 2022 in common currency terms. Over this period, the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX posted gains of close to 50%. A weak yen has boosted Japanese multinationals…
The Global Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 50 in January – exactly on the boom-bust line. The index has been on a general uptrend since mid-2023 with the January figure marking the first non-contractionary reading since…
Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade…
In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.
Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the…