Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
The Swiss franc is among the worst performing major currencies so far this year. This marks a reversal following its stellar performance last year. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) support for the domestic currency…
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be…
Chinese A-shares will probably begin forming a volatile bottom. The basis is that authorities will likely throw the kitchen sink at the onshore market in an attempt to stabilize share prices. The same is not true for offshore listed…
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in…
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central…
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with…
