This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the structural uptrend in bitcoin is still intact. The intrinsic value of bitcoin is that it cannot be confiscated by the state, either through monetary inflation, or…
The CHF/JPY has enjoyed a strong upward trend, appreciating by 52.6% since January 2019. Currently, it is 84.6% overvalued relative to PPP, which questions whether a turnaround is imminent. Japan faces more significant…
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to…
In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.
The combined US credit impulse and fiscal thrust indicator will likely relapse in 2024, heralding growth weakness. Stalling US sales volume and falling inflation, combined with sticky labor costs, will herald a non-trivial profit…
The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma,…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.…