Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global…
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, the Chilean peso’s depreciation is already quite advanced. Over the next few months, the CLP will remain under downward pressure due to a likely…
In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.
Throughout most of the second half of this year, the copper-to-gold ratio has been relatively stable, gyrating within a tight range. However, it is starting to show some tentative signs of bottoming. After the copper-to-gold…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened…
The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial…
Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are…