The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an…
Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth…
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are…
In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given…
Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Indonesia's “window of opportunity” to transition to a lower real interest rate regime – without jeopardizing the currency stability…
Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also…
Last week the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced further relaxations to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Despite this, the yen has shown no signs of life. Since the BOJ's decision was announced, the yen is the worst…
The South African rand is the best performing major currency since the DXY peaked on October 3. Considering that the rand acts as a proxy for global sentiment towards emerging markets, its recent strength raises the question…
The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of…