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Currencies

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.

BCA’s US Political strategists warn that Russia presents an immediate market risk, with near-term pullbacks offering potential buying opportunities. President Trump is pivoting toward ceasefires and trade deals, supported by approval ratings and electoral…
EUR/USD has broken below key support, and near-term risks justify a tactical bearish stance while longer-term investors should buy dips. The pair fell through its 50-day moving average, which, along with the 20-day, had provided steady support since…
The US-EU trade deal lifts uncertainty but imposes high tariffs, weighing on the EUR and supporting our long USD positioning. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all EU exports to the US, including cars and potentially, pharmaceutical products,…
Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy, and Global Investment…

We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength. 

Rising US macro uncertainty and external imbalances are reinforcing euro strength and are supportive of a long-term bullish view on EUR/USD. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist for Developed Markets ex US.Trump’s policy agenda is…
BCA’s Global Asset Allocation strategists find that international diversification outperforms home bias in both bonds and equities, especially when FX risk is hedged. Unhedged foreign bonds have consistently underperformed domestic bonds across nearly all…

Our latest report analyzes home bias in bonds and equities across 15 countries. The verdict? 

Hedged international bonds outperform domestic peers, especially during high inflation. In equities, even top markets like the US have had multi-year periods of underperformance. Allocators should leave patriotism aside when running their portfolios.